Is this borrower’s or programme’s order book as solid as the model assumes?
An aerospace borrower’s revenue rests on a supply chain a credit file never reaches. The single point that could interrupt delivery is the one that isn’t in the model.
Settled as the Lending Evidence PackCredit diligence reads the accounts, the order book and the programme. It rarely reads the chain underneath them — the sub-tier sole-source whose failure would interrupt the deliveries the facility is lent against. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call.
What the order book actually rests on.
Typical reader: an aerospace & defence lender or credit team.
The order books are growing; the chain beneath them stays unseen.
The Defence Investment Plan (30 June 2026) committed £8.6bn to GCAP over 2026–2030, the Aerospace Technology Institute Programme was extended with up to £2.3bn to 2035 (23 June 2025), and Airbus reported a 9,247-aircraft civil backlog — the dated order books a lender prices against. But the chain underneath them is where a credit file stops looking, and the same sub-tier sole-source can sit under several borrowers a model reads as unrelated. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call. See what changed →